Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg is expected to indict former President Donald Trump any day now over alleged crimes linked to payments he made to porn actress Stormy Daniels and model Karen McDougal. The indictment would undoubtedly start a political firestorm: It would be the first criminal charge against a former president, and one who has already proven successful at instigating political violence.
Bragg is reported to be considering indicting Trump for filing fraudulent business records in connection with two payments made by his associates to Daniels and McDougal in the waning days of the 2016 election. That would be a misdemeanor, but it could be upgraded to a felony charge if it was done in furtherance of another crime. The question hanging over the presumed indictment is what that other crime would be.
Speculation has largely fixated on the violation of federal campaign finance law that Trump’s ex-lawyer Michael Cohen pleaded guilty to in 2018. Cohen admitted he made a $130,000 payment to Daniels and arranged for National Enquirer parent company AMI, Inc. to make a $150,000 payment to McDougal. Prosecutors in Cohen’s case argued that the payments were made at Trump’s behest in furtherance of his 2016 presidential campaign and therefore were illegal campaign donations. Cohen admitted to these crimes in his plea agreement.
Cohen’s charging documents listed Trump as Individual-1, but Trump himself has never been charged with a crime. This is where it gets tricky. Can Bragg use this campaign finance violation, admitted to by Cohen but alleged for Trump, to upgrade a misdemeanor to a felony? It’s theoretically possible, but Bragg is on murky terrain against a powerful opponent.
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