Hurricane Idalia is gaining strength over the hot waters of the Gulf of Mexico ahead of a projected landfall along Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday as a major Category 3 hurricane, according to the National Hurricane Center. The result could be catastrophic storm surge.
Idalia, which became a Category 1 hurricane Tuesday, was 120 miles west of the Dry Tortugas and 275 miles south-southwest of Tampa as of 11 a.m., traveling north at 14 mph, with maximum sustained winds of 85 mph. Life-threatening storm surge and winds are “becoming increasingly likely” for parts of Florida, the National Hurricane Center said. Evacuation orders and school closures were already in effect along the Gulf Coast.
If the hurricane arrives during high tide, storm surge could reach 8-12 feet in some areas, DeSantis said.
“If you’re there in that storm surge, you’re putting your life in jeopardy,” Gov. Ron DeSantis said Tuesday. “Please heed those orders. You don’t have to leave the state. You don’t have to go hundreds of miles, you can go to a shelter in a different part of your county, go to a friend’s house in an area that is not going to be susceptible to the storm surge, or a hotel — all these things are good to do.”
The National Hurricane Center said that if peak storm surge coincides with high tide, flooding could be severe. Surge could reach 10 to 15 feet in the area between the Aucilla River and Yankeetown in the Big Bend region. Tampa Bay could see 4 to 7 feet. Areas as far south at Chocoloskee could see 4 feet.
MORE: Will Hurricane Idalia hit Tampa and St. Petersburg? Here’s the latest forecast track
Seeing ‘rapid intensification’
The latest projections indicate that Idalia’s maximum sustained winds could reach up to 125 mph ahead of landfall.
“Rapid intensification is likely through landfall, and Idalia is forecast to become an extremely dangerous major hurricane before landfall on Wednesday,” the National Hurricane Center said.
The system is traveling over water with temperatures as high as 87 degrees. “These conditions are expected to foster rapid intensification before Idalia reaches the coast of Florida,” the National Hurricane Center said.
Idalia’s hurricane-force winds extended outward up to 15 miles from its center, and tropical-storm-force winds extended outward up to 165 miles as of 11 a.m.
State of emergency
DeSantis expanded the state of emergency to include 49 counties in Florida, up from 46 on Monday, readying for Idalia’s landfall. That’s about three-quarters of the counties in the entire state. Additionally, at least 22 counties have issued evacuation orders in certain low-lying and vulnerable areas,
The state of emergency for Idalia does not currently include Broward, Palm Beach or Miami-Dade counties.
The temperatures in South Florida on Wednesday will be close to reaching heat advisory criteria, but slightly cooler, as Idalia makes landfall and the “outer spiral” rain bands from the storm arrive in the region.
Hurricane warnings and storm surge
A hurricane warning remains in effect for the middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
A storm surge warning extends well beyond the cone, south past Tampa Bay to Englewood and north to Indian Pass.
The hurricane center, which says the storm will come ashore on Florida’s Gulf Coast on Wednesday, is forecasting some of the highest storm surges from the Aucilla River to Chassahowitzka with 8 to 12 feet and 6 to 9 feet from Chassahowitzka to the Anclote River.
The latest hurricane warnings include new areas farther west, to Indian Pass at the western edge of the Big Bend region.
Shelters have already begun to open with more expected to open Tuesday. The governor’s office said roadway tolls will be suspended starting at 4 a.m. Tuesday to help people evacuate.
The storm will bring heavy rain and flooding to Florida’s west coast and Panhandle, with 4 to 8 inches falling from Tuesday into Thursday. Landfall areas in Florida could receive 12 inches.
Tornadoes are possible starting Tuesday along Florida’s west central Florida and moving north into the Big Bend area by Tuesday night.
Several Gulf coast counties have canceled school, and the University of Florida announced that it would close its campus and cancel classes, both in-person and online, Tuesday and Wednesday.
The National Hurricane Center forecast for the season predicted two to five major hurricanes for the 2023 Atlantic season.
Idalia is the third hurricane in the Atlantic this season. Hurricane Franklin, located near Bermuda Tuesday, strengthened into a Category 4 storm Monday as the Atlantic’s first major hurricane of the season.
In addition to Hurricane Franklin, forecasters are also monitoring an area in the central tropical Atlantic for potential development as well as a tropical wave near Africa’s west coast that is expected to move over the Atlantic in the next couple of days.
As of 11 a.m. Tuesday, the system close to Africa had a 50% chance of developing in the next seven days, and the system in the central area had become a tropical depression with sustained wind speeds of 35 mph.
The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.
While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.
The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
The next storm to form would be Jose.