The stock market rally has stalled as the final Federal Reserve meeting of the year approaches.
In the past week, the Nasdaq Composite was the only of the three major indexes to post a weekly gain, closing up more than 0.3%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 fell about 0.6%, while a decline in healthcare stocks weighed on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which slid nearly 2%. The Dow has now fallen for seven straight sessions, its worst stretch since February 2020.
Investors are set to receive a jam-packed week of economic news, highlighted by the Fed’s next interest rate decision on Dec. 18. Markets widely expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and investors are likely to focus on what Fed Chair Jerome Powell says about the path forward in 2025 during his press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
Updates on November retail sales, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and activity in the services and manufacturing sectors are also on the economic calendar.
In corporate news, quarterly results from Micron, Nike, FedEx and Carnival Corporation are expected.
A cut, then what?
Entering Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting, markets are pricing in a roughly 97% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 basis points, per the CME FedWatch tool. But given recent data that showed the US economy is growing at a solid pace, the labor market isn’t rapidly cooling, and inflation’s path to the Fed’s 2% goal is proving bumpy, many expect the Fed will cut rates by less than initially thought in 2025.
Key to watch is the Fed’s latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). That includes its “dot plot,” which maps out policymakers’ expectations for where interest rates could be headed in the future, as well as commentary from Powell during his press conference.
When the Fed last issued its dot plot in September, the median forecast was for the fed funds rate to end 2025 in a range of 3.25% to 3.5%. Instead of the four rate cuts in 2024 projected back in September, markets are pricing in just two rate cuts for next year, per Bloomberg data.
“We think that the economic forecasts will show better growth and firmer inflation this year and that the median interest rate forecast dots will be revised to show three cuts next year instead of four, as in the September dots,” JPMorgan chief US economist Michael Feroli wrote in a note to clients.
Bank of America US economist Aditya Bhave wrote in a note to clients that Powell is likely to point to a “slower pace” of cuts during his press conference including a pause in the rate-cutting cycle in January.
Retail reading
Prior to the Fed’s decision on Wednesday, officials will get a fresh reading on the state of the consumer with the November retail sales report. Economists estimate retail sales increased 0.5% over the prior month during October. The control group of retail sales — which excludes several volatile categories like gasoline and feeds directly into the gross domestic product (GDP) — is also expected to have risen by 0.4%.
Bank of America’s US economics team thinks this report will reflect a strong start to the holiday shopping period.
“Online retail spending was particularly strong around the Thanksgiving period,” the team wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “In fact, holiday spending is running ahead of cumulative 2023 levels despite a delayed Thanksgiving. Hence, we expect a robust retail sales report for Nov, with retail sales ex-autos and the core control category coming in at 0.5% m/m.”
Inflation update
Last week, readings of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) showed signs of inflation making little progress toward the Fed’s 2% target. But many economists argued that there were promising signs within the details of those reports that should lead to a less concerning reading of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge next Friday.
Economists expect annual “core” PCE — which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy — to have clocked in at 2.9% in November, up from the 2.8% seen in October. But over the prior month, economists project “core” PCE at 0.2%, lower than the 0.3% increase seen in October.
“In our view, November data on inflation should provide comfort that the disinflation process remains in place,” Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen wrote in a note to clients on Friday. “Although headline and core CPI came in slightly above our expectation … we found the details of the report favorable for thinking inflation would continue to move lower in the near-term.”
‘Bad breadth’
For 10 straight trading days more stocks have declined than risen in the S&P 500, the longest such stretch since September 2001. Still, over that time period which spans all of December thus far, the S&P 500 is up about 0.3%. Meanwhile, the equal-weighted version of the S&P 500, which isn’t overly influenced by movements in large stocks within the index, is down more than 3%.
“Savvy traders should at least pay attention to some of the warning signs about the overall health of the market. So far, it is the sniffles or just a case of bad breadth,” Interactive Brokers chief strategist Steve Sosnick wrote in a note to clients on Thursday. “But there are some symptoms that can lead to something more meaningful if left unattended.”
To Sosnick’s point, for now, a rally in the largest tech stocks in the market is keeping the benchmark index afloat. On Wednesday the Nasdaq Composite closed above 20,000 for the first time ever as Alphabet, Tesla, Meta, and Amazon all surged to record highs
Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon told Yahoo Finance that this market action comes as investors have been digesting sticky inflation prints, and the possibility of the Fed cutting interest rates less than initially, though next year isn’t a “surprise.”
“If rates are going to stay a little bit more elevated for a little bit longer than the consensus expected, then companies who have a net benefit from higher rates probably do well in that scenario,” Gordon said while noting that the “Magnificent Seven” stocks fit that description.
Weekly calendar
Monday
Economic data: Empire manufacturing activity, December (5.8 expected, 31.2prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, December preliminary (49.7 prior); S&P Global US services PMI, December preliminary (56.1 prior); S&P Global US composite PMI, December preliminary (54.9 prior)
Tuesday
Economic data: Retail sales month-over-month, November (+0.5% expected, +0.4% prior) Retail sales excluding auto and gas month-over-month, November (+0.5% expected, +0.1% prior); Retail sales control group month-over-month, November (+0.4% expected, -0.1% prior); Industrial production, month-over-month, November (0.2% expected, -0.3% prior); NAHB housing market index, December (46 expected, 46 prior)
Wednesday
Economic data: Building permits month-over-month, November preliminary (1% expected, -0.4% prior); Housing starts month-over-month, November (2.5% expected, -3.1% prior); FOMC rate decision (4.25% to 4.5% expected, 4.5% to 4.75% prior)
Thursday
Economic data: GDP annualized quarter-over-quarter, third quarter third estimate, (2.8% expected, 2.8% prior); Core PCE quarter-over-quarter, third quarter third estimate (2.1% prior); Philadelphia business outlook, December (2.2 expected, -5.5 prior); Initial jobless claims, week ending Dec. 14 (242,000 expected); Leading index, November (-0.1% expected, -0.4% prior); Existing home sales month-over-month, November (3.3% expected, 3.4% prior)
Friday
Economic data: Personal income, November (+0.4% expected, +0.6% prior); Personal spending, November (+0.5% expected, +0.4% prior); PCE index month-over-month, November (+0.2% expected, +0.2% prior); PCE Index year-over-year, November (+2.5% expected, +2.3% prior); Core PCE Index month-over-month, November (+0.2% expected, 0.3% prior); Core PCE Index, year-over-year, November (+2.9% expected, 2.8% prior); University of Michigan consumer sentiment index, December final (74 prior); Kansas City Fed services activity, December (9 prior)
